KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

80%

73%

64%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.15u · HRES −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	18.1%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	59.7%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	8.8%	48.0%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	68.9%	59.7%	18.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	48.5%	41.3%	16.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	67.0%	45.4%	37.2%	—	37.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	69.2%	61.8%	42.9%	60.3%	47.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	60.5%	—	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	68.0°F	1.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	70.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	68.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	65.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗