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KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
92%
ICON
80%
EPS
73%
HRES
64%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u
VS
HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.15u · HRES −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:0092.8%35.6%87.6%55.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:0092.8%35.6%85.0%55.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0092.8%35.6%85.0%55.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0092.8%35.6%85.0%55.5%77.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:0091.7%35.6%85.0%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0091.7%35.6%85.0%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0091.7%35.6%85.0%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0091.7%35.6%85.0%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:0091.7%35.6%85.0%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0091.7%48.9%86.7%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:0091.7%48.9%86.7%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:0091.7%48.9%86.7%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:0088.9%48.9%86.7%63.6%68.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0088.9%48.9%86.7%63.6%68.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:0091.9%73.0%93.5%64.2%80.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend>99%68.0°F1.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 294%69.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single92%70.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON80%68.7°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%65.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%65.6°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗