KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

66%

52%

25%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	48.2%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	1.6%	36.7%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	46.5%	18.9%	4.5%	—	28.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	67.7%	43.4%	30.4%	38.5%	34.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	74.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	73.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	69.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	67.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗