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KPHL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
WN2
59%
EPS
59%
ICON
37%
HRES
37%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.05u
VS
HRESNO 34.0¢Risks 33.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.95u · HRES −33.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0036.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0065.0%———35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0065.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0022.0%———31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0038.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0052.1%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.8%———28.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0012.6%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0042.1%———29.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0092.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0066.5%———26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0055.3%———26.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0056.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0037.9%———28.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0051.1%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0062.5%———31.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0074.9%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0068.1%———24.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0077.0%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0018.1%—25.9%—27.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0012.2%—21.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:006.0%———23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.4%—8.9%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.6%—69.8%—23.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:006.4%—49.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0016.0%—53.2%—33.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:004.5%—58.6%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0059.4%8.8%71.2%35.5%26.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0086.2%—54.8%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——48.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%78.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 259%69.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%69.3°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%69.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON37%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES37%66.3°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗