KPHL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

30%

20%

13%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.50u · EPS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	8.3%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	39.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	20.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	23.1%	—	10.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	26.9%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	1.4%	38.7%	11.1%	6.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	22.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	51%	73.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	70.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	65.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	66.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗