KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

36%

36%

24%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.1¢Risks 27.10u

ICONNO 72.9¢Risks 72.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.90u · ICON −72.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	30.2%	—	—	89.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	82.8%	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	63.3%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	37.6%	59.1%	1.5%	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	54.4%	62.3%	74.6%	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	67.7%	64.2%	85.4%	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	49.2%	27.4%	42.9%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	39.3%	36.1%	55.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	4.7%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	29.1%	43.9%	62.9%	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	26.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	20.3%	47.2%	64.4%	—	54.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	22.4%	37.0%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	17.7%	49.0%	79.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	18.3%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	10.3%	20.4%	72.4%	—	67.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	19.0%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	18.3%	8.5%	50.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	16.8%	13.5%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	17.5%	7.2%	95.2%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.0%	4.3%	66.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.0%	7.5%	84.9%	42.6%	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.3%	30.2%	85.0%	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	1.2%	7.4%	74.9%	98.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	0.1%	11.8%	68.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	0.5%	33.1%	64.2%	93.2%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	10.5%	39.5%	56.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	2.2%	48.4%	36.1%	91.1%	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	18.1%	48.4%	59.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2153
AIFS Single	53%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2209
IFS HRES	36%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4058
IFS Ensemble	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4109
WeatherNext 2	24%	81.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5852
ICON	1%	75.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.9761

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗