KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

71%

35%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

HRESNO 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.65u · HRES −40.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	68.2%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	48.7%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	43.3%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	19.9%	38.2%	0.4%	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	33.0%	40.6%	54.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	45.4%	41.7%	68.4%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	26.8%	11.5%	21.8%	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	18.4%	16.2%	31.5%	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	1.0%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	11.3%	20.8%	37.1%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	9.6%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	6.3%	22.3%	37.3%	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	7.0%	14.8%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	4.9%	22.5%	53.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	2.1%	5.5%	42.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	4.7%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	4.2%	1.4%	20.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.5%	2.6%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.5%	1.0%	78.5%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	31.4%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.9%	53.7%	13.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	6.8%	52.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.7%	36.8%	88.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	1.3%	28.8%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	6.3%	23.4%	65.5%	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.9%	8.0%	16.2%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	11.0%	6.1%	56.3%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.6%	9.9%	16.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	91.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6956
IFS Ensemble	80%	90.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6352
WeatherNext 2	71%	89.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.5013
National Blend	55%	87.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2970
IFS HRES	35%	84.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1246

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗