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KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
83%
EPS
80%
WN2
71%
HRES
35%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.3¢Risks 59.35u
VS
HRESNO 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.65u · HRES −40.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:53+00:0083.4%79.7%70.8%35.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:0083.4%79.7%70.8%35.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:0083.4%79.7%70.8%35.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:0083.4%79.7%70.8%35.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:27+00:0083.4%79.7%70.8%35.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single83%91.9°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.6956
IFS Ensemble80%90.4°F4.7°F2026-10-10 00:000.6352
WeatherNext 271%89.4°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.5013
National Blend55%87.0°F4.4°F2026-10-11 00:000.2970
IFS HRES35%84.1°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.1246

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗