KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

66%

61%

16%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	27.7%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	30.1%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	0.5%	67.6%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	74.8%	72.0%	25.2%	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	62.9%	44.9%	69.6%	—	77.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	57.6%	76.6%	53.0%	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	43.6%	74.5%	56.4%	—	64.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	45.0%	62.3%	63.9%	—	70.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	0.1%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	1.2%	32.2%	76.6%	—	68.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	6.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	47.2%	80.4%	—	66.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	5.9%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	10.2%	27.1%	71.3%	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	3.0%	34.4%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	13.9%	25.9%	73.2%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	27.1%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	2.0%	33.1%	64.9%	0.0%	63.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	8.7%	25.8%	0.6%	—	65.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	26.0%	34.1%	69.0%	52.3%	72.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	8.7%	29.3%	56.0%	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	23.6%	46.3%	51.2%	—	59.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	4.0%	38.5%	48.7%	—	61.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	28.4%	24.0%	36.8%	91.1%	55.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	23.2%	40.3%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	37.2%	35.8%	57.2%	76.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	86%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	87.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	16%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗