KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

52%

38%

32%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.00u · ICON −63.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	79.3%	47.0%	74.0%	89.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	79.3%	47.0%	64.9%	89.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	79.3%	47.0%	64.9%	89.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	79.3%	47.0%	64.9%	89.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	79.3%	47.0%	64.9%	89.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	80.7%	47.0%	64.9%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	80.7%	47.0%	64.9%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	80.7%	47.0%	64.9%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	80.7%	47.0%	64.9%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	80.7%	41.6%	63.7%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	80.7%	41.6%	63.7%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	80.7%	41.6%	63.7%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	80.7%	41.6%	63.7%	54.9%	62.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	81.7%	41.6%	63.7%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	63.7%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	63.7%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	63.7%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	81.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	63.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	59.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	59.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	59.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	53.5%	54.9%	59.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	53.5%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	80.7%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	70.1%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	59.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	42.8%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	41.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	42.8%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	41.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	42.8%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	41.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	42.8%	37.3%	56.1%	51.2%	41.9%
2026-10-14T10:35:07+00:00	42.8%	37.3%	56.1%	14.9%	41.9%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	42.8%	53.7%	23.3%	14.9%	41.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	42.8%	53.7%	23.3%	14.9%	41.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	42.8%	53.7%	23.3%	14.9%	41.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	61.1%	53.7%	23.3%	14.9%	41.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	61.1%	53.7%	23.3%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	23.3%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	23.3%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	23.3%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	25.6%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	25.6%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	61.1%	50.0%	25.6%	14.9%	42.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	25.6%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	25.6%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	25.6%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	25.6%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	25.6%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	67.8%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	67.8%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	67.8%	50.0%	26.3%	1.0%	43.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	69.4%	32.0%	18.6%	52.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	69.4%	32.0%	37.9%	52.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	69.4%	32.0%	37.9%	52.1%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	69.4%	32.0%	37.9%	52.1%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	88.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	86.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 89°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗