KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

52%

38%

32%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

ICONNO 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.00u · ICON −63.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	48.0%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	55.6%	52.1%	11.5%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	41.3%	24.9%	48.5%	—	58.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	35.1%	56.1%	30.9%	—	59.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	22.4%	52.4%	33.0%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	22.5%	37.7%	39.3%	—	46.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	0.2%	13.1%	52.6%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	1.4%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.7%	22.3%	56.4%	—	39.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	1.1%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	2.3%	9.0%	43.2%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	0.4%	12.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	3.2%	7.8%	43.9%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	0.7%	8.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	0.2%	10.4%	33.1%	0.0%	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	1.4%	6.7%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	6.5%	10.0%	35.2%	20.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	1.2%	7.4%	22.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	4.9%	15.1%	18.2%	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.3%	10.3%	15.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	5.7%	4.3%	8.9%	63.2%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	3.7%	9.8%	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	7.8%	7.3%	18.2%	35.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	88.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	86.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 89°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗