KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

42%

26%

23%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.2¢Risks 31.20u

ICONNO 68.8¢Risks 68.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.80u · ICON −68.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.1%	41.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	48.6%	45.1%	8.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	34.3%	19.4%	41.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	28.3%	48.5%	24.5%	—	52.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	16.9%	44.4%	26.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	16.8%	30.0%	31.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	0.0%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	0.1%	9.0%	43.9%	—	34.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.8%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	0.4%	16.0%	47.2%	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	0.6%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	5.6%	33.9%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.2%	8.0%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	1.7%	4.7%	34.0%	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	0.3%	4.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.1%	6.2%	23.8%	0.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	0.6%	3.8%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	3.5%	5.7%	25.1%	13.4%	28.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	4.0%	14.5%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.9%	11.2%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	5.6%	9.2%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	2.8%	2.0%	4.6%	50.0%	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	1.7%	5.0%	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	3.7%	3.5%	10.2%	23.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	88.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	86.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗