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KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
17%
ICON
9%
EPS
5%
WN2
1%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.6¢Risks 4.30u
VS
HRESNO 91.4¢Risks 45.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.70u · HRES −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:006.6%————23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0027.0%————33.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0020.4%————19.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0012.8%————25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:001.1%————18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:006.3%————27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.1%————22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:004.0%————28.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0032.7%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0013.8%————36.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0026.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0022.1%————37.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0017.7%————29.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0024.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.9%—1.7%——23.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0022.9%—8.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0014.9%————21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—9.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.9%—1.6%——16.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:007.9%—11.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:007.2%0.0%10.8%——16.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:009.8%—8.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0014.9%13.7%11.9%0.8%—20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0012.9%—10.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0012.8%6.6%2.5%9.3%—14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—3.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0011.4%4.2%11.8%3.3%—13.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.7%—11.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.8%1.5%9.0%3.3%—5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.5%—7.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.6%1.3%3.8%4.1%—6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.1%0.0%2.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%0.4%7.0%—4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.9%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.9%7.3%—2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%0.1%3.0%—1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.2%——0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.1%2.5%—0.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.1%——0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%0.1%0.9%0.0%0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.2%1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.0%0.2%—0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.2%0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single17%90.8°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:000.0296
NWS forecast11%89.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 14:000.0112
ICON9%87.5°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:000.0079
IFS Ensemble5%88.5°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.0027
National Blend4%88.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 06:000.0017
WeatherNext 21%85.9°F4.1°F2026-10-14 12:000.0001
IFS HRES<1%75.1°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗