KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

74%

59%

25%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.80u · ICON −40.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	58.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	24.1%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	40.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	41.6%	30.5%	5.6%	—	44.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	23.7%	15.2%	9.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	23.4%	30.3%	12.5%	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	3.1%	29.5%	45.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	14.8%	33.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	0.3%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	20.2%	20.8%	48.2%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	13.5%	25.7%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	21.6%	30.6%	51.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	22.4%	29.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	24.0%	28.7%	52.9%	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	19.7%	24.9%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	25.9%	28.5%	58.2%	0.0%	49.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	38.5%	33.5%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	35.1%	33.1%	44.5%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	17.5%	34.6%	0.1%	—	53.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	13.4%	41.9%	50.0%	0.0%	52.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	27.3%	41.6%	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	34.2%	45.0%	52.5%	76.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	36.1%	47.4%	74.1%	—	59.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	31.9%	56.7%	76.0%	80.0%	56.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	65.0%	75.8%	—	51.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	47.1%	68.2%	48.5%	72.0%	68.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	57.5%	74.0%	—	71.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	94.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	93.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	87.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗