KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

20%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.2¢Risks 17.20u

ICONNO 82.8¢Risks 82.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.80u · ICON −82.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:30+00:00	25.5%	14.7%	5.8%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	25.5%	14.7%	5.8%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	25.5%	14.7%	5.8%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	25.5%	14.7%	5.8%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	25.5%	15.9%	4.6%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	25.5%	15.9%	4.6%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	25.5%	15.9%	4.6%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	25.5%	15.9%	4.6%	21.5%	1.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	26.7%	15.9%	4.6%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	4.6%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	4.6%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	4.6%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	3.4%	21.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	3.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	16.0%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	6.5%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	4.4%	18.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T10:35:07+00:00	0.8%	13.7%	4.4%	2.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	0.8%	8.4%	1.1%	2.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	0.8%	8.4%	1.1%	2.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	0.8%	8.4%	1.1%	2.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	10.3%	8.4%	1.1%	2.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	11.0%	8.4%	1.2%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	1.2%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	1.2%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	1.2%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	2.0%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	2.0%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	11.0%	7.1%	2.0%	3.0%	18.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.0%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.0%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.0%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.0%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.0%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	18.7%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	2.1%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	1.8%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	1.8%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	22.9%	7.1%	1.8%	4.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	3.5%	7.1%	1.8%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	3.5%	7.1%	1.8%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	3.5%	7.1%	1.8%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	3.5%	7.1%	1.8%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	3.5%	6.7%	0.7%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	3.5%	6.7%	0.7%	12.3%	1.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	22.2%	6.7%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	22.2%	6.7%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	22.2%	6.4%	0.7%	12.3%	1.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	20.5%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	20.5%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	20.5%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	20.5%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	20.5%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	20.4%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	20.4%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	1.1%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	21.6%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	2.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	21.0%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	21.0%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	21.0%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	21.0%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	21.0%	6.4%	0.7%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	0.3%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	0.3%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	0.3%	16.2%	4.8%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	19.8%	4.2%	0.3%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	19.7%	4.2%	0.3%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	19.7%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	4.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	5.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	5.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	5.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	0.8%	12.3%	5.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	0.8%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	20.3%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	1.9%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	2.8%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	24.2%	4.9%	2.8%	9.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	1.9%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	1.9%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	3.1%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	3.1%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	3.1%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	33.7%	4.3%	3.1%	8.6%	1.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	3.1%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	3.1%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	3.1%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	3.1%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	36.3%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	6.5%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	6.5%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	6.5%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	38.1%	4.3%	6.5%	13.2%	2.5%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	32.0%	4.3%	6.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	32.0%	4.3%	6.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	32.0%	4.3%	6.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	32.0%	4.3%	6.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	32.0%	5.0%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	32.0%	5.0%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	32.0%	5.0%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	32.0%	5.0%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	33.8%	5.6%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	33.8%	5.6%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	33.8%	4.4%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	33.8%	4.4%	2.9%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	33.8%	4.4%	1.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	33.8%	4.4%	1.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	33.8%	4.4%	1.5%	19.0%	1.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	1.5%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	1.5%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	1.5%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	1.5%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	1.5%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	35.6%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	4.7%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	11.0%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	11.0%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	42.2%	4.4%	11.0%	19.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T07:34:02+00:00	38.0%	4.4%	11.0%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	38.0%	4.4%	11.0%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	38.0%	4.4%	11.0%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	38.0%	4.4%	11.0%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	38.0%	4.4%	11.0%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	38.0%	7.5%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	38.0%	7.5%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	38.0%	7.5%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	13.6%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	18.0%	0.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	10.8%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	39.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	9.0%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	37.0%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	33.6%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	33.6%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	33.6%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	33.6%	7.1%	20.5%	16.6%	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	34%	94.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	93.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	87.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗