KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

20%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.2¢Risks 17.20u

ICONNO 82.8¢Risks 82.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.80u · ICON −82.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	10.5%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	10.2%	5.8%	0.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	1.7%	0.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	3.0%	4.8%	1.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	4.1%	9.3%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.1%	1.1%	4.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.6%	1.7%	8.6%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.7%	2.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	2.9%	9.0%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.5%	2.1%	8.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.9%	1.5%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	1.4%	1.7%	9.0%	0.0%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	3.0%	2.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.1%	1.9%	3.8%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	1.8%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.2%	2.5%	4.0%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.8%	2.2%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	1.1%	2.3%	3.5%	12.4%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.1%	2.2%	9.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.6%	3.2%	9.5%	12.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.8%	4.3%	8.1%	—	2.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.2%	4.4%	1.3%	5.5%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	1.8%	5.1%	—	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	34%	94.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	93.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	87.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗