KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

75%

74%

41%

27%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

AIFSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.40u · AIFS −37.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	52.3%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	31.8%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	12.4%	96.6%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	82.0%	89.1%	6.7%	—	94.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	72.2%	74.6%	96.9%	—	88.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	59.8%	92.2%	67.0%	—	90.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	97.6%	95.7%	98.3%	—	85.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	91.0%	89.5%	98.9%	—	88.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	57.6%	99.2%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	65.4%	99.5%	67.8%	—	96.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	95.9%	99.3%	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	98.3%	98.8%	92.7%	—	99.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	92.3%	97.8%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	44.2%	91.0%	98.5%	—	96.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	24.9%	92.4%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	15.1%	94.8%	96.2%	—	95.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	59.5%	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	65.9%	90.1%	95.3%	—	96.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	86.5%	93.3%	81.0%	—	97.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	92.0%	89.0%	100.0%	32.0%	99.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	99.5%	94.2%	100.0%	—	99.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	96.0%	99.5%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	99.6%	100.0%	—	99.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	89.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	82.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	82.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	76.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	75.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗