Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 79°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
EPS +37.40u · AIFS −37.40u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFS Ensemble | 98% | 89.4°F | 5.0°F | 2026-10-13 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 75% | 82.1°F | 5.4°F | 2026-10-13 12:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 74% | 82.6°F | 6.3°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 54% | 79.0°F | 5.5°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 41% | 76.2°F | 9.9°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 27% | 75.0°F | 5.6°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 79°F · KPHX
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC
Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗