KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

94%

89%

57%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 76.9¢Risks 76.90u

WN2NO 23.1¢Risks 23.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.10u · WN2 −23.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	24.9%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	9.9%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.3%	83.7%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	51.4%	63.8%	0.9%	—	75.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	37.1%	39.9%	83.0%	—	60.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	23.9%	67.7%	30.3%	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	83.7%	76.4%	86.9%	—	52.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	61.5%	58.3%	89.5%	—	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	19.0%	91.2%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	24.1%	93.0%	26.2%	—	77.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	72.9%	91.2%	—	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	83.4%	86.1%	61.8%	—	88.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	59.4%	79.7%	—	—	89.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	8.6%	54.9%	82.9%	—	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	2.7%	57.0%	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	1.0%	63.1%	68.8%	—	66.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	13.8%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	16.9%	46.7%	61.8%	—	68.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	37.8%	53.4%	29.6%	—	72.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	47.7%	40.8%	97.3%	2.7%	83.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	85.5%	52.4%	97.7%	—	79.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	57.4%	84.9%	93.3%	99.5%	90.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	84.2%	99.0%	—	82.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	92.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	90.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	90.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	89%	89.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	84.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	84.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗