KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

94%

89%

57%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 76.9¢Risks 76.90u

WN2NO 23.1¢Risks 23.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.10u · WN2 −23.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	74.0%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	74.0%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	56.4%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	56.4%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	56.4%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	46.5%	95.0%	56.4%	33.0%	37.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	56.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	56.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	56.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	56.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	86.2%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	93.6%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	93.6%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	93.6%	95.0%	57.4%	96.4%	88.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	92.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	90.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	90.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	89%	89.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	84.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	84.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗