KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

83%

61%

50%

15%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.95u · ICON −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.6%	68.2%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	31.1%	43.0%	0.2%	—	56.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	18.9%	21.0%	65.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	10.0%	45.4%	13.8%	—	40.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	64.8%	54.8%	69.8%	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	36.9%	33.8%	73.5%	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.4%	76.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	8.6%	79.2%	9.7%	—	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	47.3%	75.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	60.9%	65.3%	34.7%	—	68.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	31.8%	54.7%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	1.8%	27.1%	58.7%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	0.4%	28.2%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	33.0%	38.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	3.0%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	3.8%	18.3%	30.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	12.3%	22.3%	8.3%	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	17.5%	13.4%	85.3%	0.2%	53.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	56.0%	19.9%	86.1%	—	46.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	22.7%	53.7%	71.3%	94.8%	64.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	51.3%	91.3%	—	48.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	91.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	90.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	86.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗