KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

19%

16%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.5¢Risks 17.55u

WN2NO 82.5¢Risks 82.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.45u · WN2 −82.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.9%	5.6%	0.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	1.1%	14.4%	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	5.0%	0.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.1%	6.9%	14.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	1.8%	14.8%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	15.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	17.2%	0.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	13.0%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.8%	7.3%	1.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.9%	3.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	0.5%	4.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	0.9%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%	9.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	2.6%	19.1%	1.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	10.9%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	92.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	90.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	90.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	89.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE95
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 95°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗