KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

19%

16%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.5¢Risks 17.55u

WN2NO 82.5¢Risks 82.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.45u · WN2 −82.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.3%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.3%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.3%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.3%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.3%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	1.1%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	0.4%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	0.4%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	17.3%	17.5%	0.4%	5.6%	26.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.4%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.4%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.4%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.4%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.2%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	6.2%	17.5%	0.2%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	6.2%	10.6%	0.2%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	6.2%	10.6%	0.2%	40.4%	9.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	19.2%	10.6%	0.2%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	19.2%	10.6%	0.2%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.2%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.2%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.9%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.9%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.9%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	19.2%	10.2%	0.9%	40.4%	9.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.9%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.9%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.9%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.9%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	4.6%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	0.8%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	5.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	28.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	28.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	0.2%	10.2%	1.0%	24.8%	28.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	9.6%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.3%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.6%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.6%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.6%	34.5%	14.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	19.2%	16.4%	0.6%	34.5%	14.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	92.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	90.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	90.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	89.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE95
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 95°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗