KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

93%

85%

85%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

AIFSNO 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.83u · AIFS −4.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	98.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	77.5%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	64.0%	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	10.2%	40.6%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	9.6%	52.8%	1.9%	—	75.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	55.1%	83.5%	52.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	95.9%	54.6%	55.3%	—	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	89.2%	87.3%	16.4%	—	90.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	93.0%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	87.5%	97.5%	42.5%	—	95.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	32.6%	97.3%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	40.5%	96.1%	86.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	84.5%	98.6%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	40.9%	98.1%	56.4%	—	68.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	49.0%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	82.9%	98.9%	59.6%	—	82.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	87.1%	99.3%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	58.2%	99.7%	74.9%	—	84.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	70.2%	99.9%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	41.3%	99.7%	89.6%	7.7%	93.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	99.9%	86.5%	—	82.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	83.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	88.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	85.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗