KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

93%

85%

85%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

AIFSNO 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.83u · AIFS −4.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	63.0%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	63.0%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	63.0%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	63.0%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	51.5%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	51.5%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	51.5%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	51.5%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	51.5%	84.0%	64.6%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	51.5%	88.3%	61.0%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	51.5%	88.3%	61.0%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	51.5%	88.3%	61.0%	73.8%	72.7%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	66.5%	88.3%	61.0%	69.1%	72.7%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	66.5%	88.3%	61.0%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	66.5%	89.9%	61.0%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	66.5%	90.0%	61.0%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	66.5%	90.0%	61.0%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	66.5%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	66.5%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	66.5%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	96.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	96.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	96.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.7%	69.1%	96.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.7%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	76.0%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	81.6%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	81.6%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	71.7%	90.0%	81.6%	91.8%	96.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00	87.9%	90.0%	81.6%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	87.9%	90.0%	81.6%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	87.9%	90.0%	81.6%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	87.9%	90.0%	81.6%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	87.9%	90.0%	81.6%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	87.9%	94.9%	95.8%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	87.9%	94.9%	95.8%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	87.9%	94.9%	95.8%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	84.8%	94.9%	95.8%	85.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	84.9%	94.9%	95.8%	85.4%	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	83.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	88.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	85.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗