KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

42%

31%

11%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

AIFSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.90u · AIFS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	67.0%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	51.3%	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	28.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	4.9%	38.9%	0.8%	—	63.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	40.6%	72.8%	37.8%	—	52.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	91.3%	39.4%	40.2%	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	80.0%	77.0%	8.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	85.6%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	76.8%	93.9%	27.2%	—	90.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	19.0%	93.3%	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	24.8%	90.6%	75.2%	—	57.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	71.3%	96.1%	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	24.4%	94.7%	38.2%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	30.9%	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	67.8%	96.5%	40.4%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	73.5%	97.5%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	37.8%	98.6%	56.1%	—	68.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	50.0%	99.3%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	22.1%	98.7%	76.2%	2.4%	83.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	99.4%	70.4%	—	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	84.8°F	9.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	78.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	77.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	31%	73.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	71.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗