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KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
76%
HRES
51%
WN2
42%
ICON
31%
AIFS
11%
Consensus
38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u
VS
AIFSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.90u · AIFS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00ICON: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:0010.6%75.6%41.9%50.6%31.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:0010.6%75.6%41.9%50.6%31.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:0010.6%75.6%41.9%50.6%31.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:0010.6%75.6%41.9%50.6%31.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble76%84.8°F9.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend53%79.0°F7.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES51%78.6°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%77.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON31%73.6°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single11%71.5°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗