KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

79%

48%

35%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.3¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	61.2%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	44.8%	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.8%	22.8%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.3%	32.3%	0.5%	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	33.7%	66.3%	31.0%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	87.8%	32.3%	33.0%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	73.9%	70.5%	5.7%	—	75.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	80.5%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	70.0%	91.0%	20.7%	—	86.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	13.7%	90.1%	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	18.4%	86.4%	67.8%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	63.2%	93.7%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	17.8%	91.7%	29.7%	—	41.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	23.1%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	58.7%	94.1%	31.3%	—	57.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	64.7%	95.6%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	28.5%	97.4%	45.9%	—	59.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	39.5%	98.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	14.9%	97.4%	66.9%	1.2%	76.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	98.6%	60.0%	—	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	85.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	35%	78.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗