KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

80%

79%

48%

35%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.3¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	89.8%	89.3%	71.2%	85.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	89.8%	89.3%	74.4%	85.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	89.8%	89.3%	74.4%	85.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	89.8%	89.3%	74.4%	85.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	89.8%	89.3%	74.4%	85.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	87.1%	89.3%	74.4%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	87.1%	89.3%	74.4%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	87.1%	89.3%	74.4%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	87.1%	89.3%	74.4%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	87.1%	79.9%	75.7%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	87.1%	79.9%	75.7%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	87.1%	79.9%	75.7%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	87.1%	79.9%	75.7%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	86.2%	79.7%	75.7%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	87.6%	78.6%	68.5%	83.1%	31.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	87.6%	78.6%	85.2%	83.1%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	87.6%	78.6%	85.2%	83.1%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	87.6%	78.6%	85.2%	83.1%	31.9%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	82.6%	78.6%	85.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	82.6%	78.6%	85.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	82.6%	78.6%	85.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	82.6%	78.6%	85.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	82.6%	78.6%	85.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	82.6%	79.7%	77.1%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	82.6%	79.7%	77.1%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	82.6%	79.7%	77.1%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	80.7%	79.7%	77.1%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	80.7%	79.7%	77.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	77.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	77.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	77.2%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	83.7%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	83.7%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	80.7%	79.3%	83.7%	47.3%	65.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	83.7%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	83.7%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	83.7%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	83.7%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	83.7%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	84.4%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	80.1%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	80.1%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	80.1%	79.3%	82.2%	48.2%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	85.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	35%	78.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗