KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

51%

36%

34%

25%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.95u

ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.05u · ICON −52.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	55.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	38.4%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.6%	18.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	2.2%	26.3%	0.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	27.2%	59.4%	24.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	83.5%	25.8%	26.4%	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	67.0%	63.3%	3.8%	—	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	62.3%	87.1%	15.2%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	9.5%	85.8%	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	13.1%	81.0%	59.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	54.5%	90.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	12.4%	87.6%	22.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	16.5%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	49.0%	90.6%	23.2%	—	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	92.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	20.4%	95.3%	35.9%	—	49.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	29.8%	97.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	9.4%	95.3%	56.5%	0.6%	66.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	97.3%	48.9%	—	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	85.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	81.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	80.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	78.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	78.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	73.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗