KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

51%

36%

34%

25%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.95u

ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.05u · ICON −52.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	5.5%	68.2%	33.0%	38.2%	24.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	5.5%	68.2%	33.0%	38.2%	24.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	5.5%	71.4%	33.0%	38.2%	24.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	5.5%	71.4%	33.0%	38.2%	24.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	27.0%	71.4%	33.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	27.0%	71.4%	33.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	33.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	33.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	49.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	49.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	49.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	27.0%	71.2%	49.2%	38.3%	24.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	49.2%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	49.2%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	49.2%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	49.2%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	31.8%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	35.7%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	35.7%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	35.7%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	35.7%	71.2%	34.0%	50.6%	24.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	85.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	81.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	80.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	78.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	78.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	73.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗