KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

51%

46%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.5¢Risks 40.45u

ICONNO 59.5¢Risks 59.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.55u · ICON −59.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	36.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	21.7%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	7.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.6%	12.2%	0.1%	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	12.4%	37.8%	10.9%	—	19.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	65.6%	11.0%	11.4%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	43.6%	39.7%	0.9%	—	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	37.7%	69.2%	4.9%	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	2.5%	66.6%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	3.8%	58.7%	33.8%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	28.7%	73.6%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	3.2%	67.8%	7.3%	—	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	4.6%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	22.5%	72.1%	7.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	26.5%	75.9%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	5.5%	81.7%	12.8%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	9.2%	86.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	1.6%	80.2%	25.5%	0.0%	35.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	85.9%	19.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	81.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	80%	86.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	83.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	83.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	75.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗