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KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
80%
EPS
79%
AIFS
51%
WN2
46%
ICON
1%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 40.5¢Risks 40.45u
VS
ICONNO 59.5¢Risks 59.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.55u · ICON −59.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.9% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.9% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.1% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 17.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 11:3910-20 18:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:0046.3%60.0%39.4%17.3%8.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0046.3%60.0%39.4%17.3%8.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0046.3%60.0%36.0%17.3%8.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:0046.3%60.0%36.0%17.3%8.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0046.3%60.0%36.0%17.3%8.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:0052.0%60.0%36.0%17.3%1.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0052.0%60.0%36.0%17.3%1.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0052.0%60.0%36.0%17.3%1.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:0052.0%60.0%36.0%17.3%1.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:0052.0%78.8%27.0%79.7%1.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0052.0%78.8%27.0%79.7%1.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0052.0%78.8%27.0%79.7%1.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0052.0%78.8%27.0%79.7%1.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0052.0%78.8%26.9%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0052.0%78.8%26.9%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:0052.0%79.3%26.9%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:0052.0%79.3%26.9%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:0051.0%79.3%46.1%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0051.0%79.3%46.1%79.7%1.2%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0051.0%79.3%46.1%79.7%1.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES80%86.9°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%88.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
AIFS Single51%83.6°F4.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
National Blend46%83.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%83.2°F3.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON1%75.5°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗