KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

ICONNO 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.35u · ICON −80.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	7.9%	1.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	22.8%	0.9%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.7%	7.2%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	11.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.8%	22.5%	0.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.1%	19.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.1%	13.6%	4.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.8%	23.5%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	17.8%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	19.0%	0.2%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	21.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	25.9%	0.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	31.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	21.3%	1.1%	0.0%	2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	26.7%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	39%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	86.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	83.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	83.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	75.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗