WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
51%
HRES
20%
EPS
8%
AIFS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 26.6¢Risks 26.60u
VS
AIFSNO 73.4¢Risks 73.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.40u · AIFS −73.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 86.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 87.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 40.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 78.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 49.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0092.7%————45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0033.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————3.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.9%————1.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————2.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.4%————1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0090.0%————2.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0072.6%————6.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0092.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0076.4%————7.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0059.5%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0063.6%————17.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0078.8%————25.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0054.5%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0061.8%————20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0061.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0057.0%————37.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0081.9%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0086.0%————32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0092.3%—8.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0084.3%—18.1%——20.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0093.0%—25.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0054.5%—30.1%——5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0074.2%—68.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0093.0%86.5%52.7%——17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0069.8%—67.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0065.1%87.0%40.3%97.2%—18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0062.0%—50.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0072.8%37.8%12.4%40.6%—26.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0058.2%—10.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0055.3%2.7%38.0%37.2%—23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0052.3%—7.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0032.3%7.5%9.0%78.2%—6.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0037.2%—4.7%——3.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0017.3%8.7%1.5%49.2%—2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.7%59.3%1.6%——4.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0015.1%50.9%2.4%9.0%—20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0015.5%10.8%0.8%——15.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0019.0%50.0%1.0%34.7%—23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0012.7%41.5%0.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0019.7%11.6%0.6%31.3%—12.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0021.1%8.4%0.3%——66.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0015.7%32.1%0.1%17.6%—10.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0020.5%21.3%0.1%——12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0014.3%47.8%0.1%6.2%87.5%3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—0.0%8.3%—11.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON51%75.4°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%79.3°F4.5°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%85.3°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend4%83.0°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%83.7°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%82.3°F3.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗