KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

80%

72%

71%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.0¢Risks 40.02u

HRESNO 20.0¢Risks 9.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.98u · HRES −9.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	32.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	37.9%	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	17.6%	38.0%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	77.0%	72.0%	5.8%	—	63.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	49.3%	75.7%	52.2%	—	69.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	53.8%	76.6%	49.2%	—	73.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	82.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	47.6%	88.5%	60.3%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	87.0%	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	45.0%	81.0%	67.8%	—	62.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	15.7%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	67.0%	91.3%	62.9%	—	75.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	80.4%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	68.6%	86.1%	79.1%	—	74.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	67.4%	88.7%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	66.1%	87.4%	84.1%	27.1%	80.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	87.6%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	90.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	83.8°F	7.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	80.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	72%	78.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗