KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

76%

74%

44%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	22.7%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	7.5%	20.8%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	58.4%	52.1%	1.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	28.5%	55.8%	31.0%	—	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	31.6%	56.1%	27.7%	—	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	25.5%	72.6%	36.7%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	69.5%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	22.5%	59.9%	43.4%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	4.9%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	41.3%	75.9%	37.1%	—	51.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	57.1%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	41.8%	65.3%	54.6%	—	49.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	39.7%	69.1%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	37.6%	66.1%	60.6%	9.0%	54.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	65.6%	—	—	53.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	82.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	76.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗