KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

76%

74%

44%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:06:00+00:00	81.5%	70.7%	74.1%	67.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	81.5%	70.7%	74.1%	67.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	81.5%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	81.5%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	81.5%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	82.0%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	44.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	82.0%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	44.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	82.0%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	44.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	82.0%	70.7%	75.8%	67.7%	44.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00	82.0%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	82.0%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	82.0%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	82.0%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	82.1%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	82.1%	78.5%	74.4%	76.3%	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	82.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	76.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗