KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.2¢Risks 16.25u

AIFSNO 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.75u · AIFS −83.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	6.6%	19.6%	6.6%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	6.6%	19.6%	6.6%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	6.6%	19.6%	6.6%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	6.6%	19.6%	6.6%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	6.6%	19.6%	6.6%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	6.6%	15.9%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	8.2%	15.9%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	8.1%	15.9%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	8.1%	16.3%	5.1%	19.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	5.1%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	5.1%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	5.1%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	5.1%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	5.1%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	8.4%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	7.3%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	6.1%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	21.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	5.3%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	27.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	5.3%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	27.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	5.3%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	27.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	5.3%	16.3%	6.6%	14.5%	27.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00	5.3%	10.2%	6.1%	8.2%	27.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	5.3%	10.2%	6.1%	8.2%	27.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	5.3%	10.2%	6.1%	8.2%	27.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	5.3%	10.2%	6.1%	8.2%	27.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	5.2%	10.2%	6.1%	8.2%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	76.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	82.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗