Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	62.1%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	63.4%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	82.4%	62.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	23.0%	28.1%	94.2%	—	36.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.7%	24.3%	47.8%	—	31.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	46.2%	23.4%	50.8%	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	17.9%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	52.4%	11.5%	39.7%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	13.0%	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	55.0%	18.9%	32.2%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	84.3%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	33.0%	8.6%	37.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	19.6%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	31.4%	13.9%	20.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	32.6%	11.3%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	33.9%	12.6%	15.9%	72.9%	19.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	12.4%	—	—	20.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	76.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	82.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗