KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

62%

57%

48%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.20u

WN2NO 37.8¢Risks 37.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.80u · WN2 −37.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.4%	50.7%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	46.5%	60.4%	8.5%	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	33.7%	91.6%	24.3%	—	60.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	5.6%	67.7%	56.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.9%	90.0%	21.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	52.5%	74.9%	52.5%	—	36.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	9.5%	87.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	48.2%	58.7%	26.2%	13.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	49.1%	—	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	82.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	81.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	80.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗