KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

62%

56%

48%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.20u

WN2NO 37.8¢Risks 37.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.80u · WN2 −37.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	61.6%	33.7%	54.3%	50.6%	26.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	61.6%	33.7%	64.2%	50.6%	26.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	61.6%	33.7%	64.2%	50.6%	26.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	61.6%	33.7%	64.2%	50.6%	26.0%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	65.7%	33.7%	64.2%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	65.7%	33.7%	64.2%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	65.7%	33.7%	64.2%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	65.7%	33.7%	64.2%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	65.7%	33.7%	64.2%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	65.7%	57.1%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	65.7%	57.1%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	65.7%	57.1%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	59.6%	57.1%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	59.6%	57.1%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	62.4%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	66.0%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	66.0%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	59.6%	57.2%	66.0%	49.3%	61.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	51.6%	57.2%	66.0%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	51.6%	57.2%	66.0%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	51.6%	57.2%	66.0%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	51.6%	57.2%	66.0%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	51.6%	57.2%	66.0%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	51.6%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	51.6%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	51.6%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	48.1%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	64.2%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	76.4%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	62.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	76.4%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	62.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	76.4%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	62.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	76.4%	57.1%	51.9%	45.9%	62.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00	76.4%	55.5%	47.9%	69.8%	62.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	76.4%	55.5%	47.9%	69.8%	62.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	76.4%	55.5%	47.9%	69.8%	62.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	76.4%	55.5%	47.9%	69.8%	62.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	76.5%	55.5%	47.9%	69.9%	62.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	76.5%	55.5%	47.9%	69.9%	62.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	82.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	81.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	80.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗