KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.7¢Risks 1.66u

AIFSNO 93.3¢Risks 23.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.34u · AIFS −23.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	37.8%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	91.2%	19.4%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	21.4%	12.6%	68.9%	—	13.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	31.0%	1.1%	41.3%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	73.6%	7.8%	12.9%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	20.6%	1.1%	41.3%	—	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	13.4%	4.3%	13.4%	—	24.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	59.3%	1.4%	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	14.6%	9.4%	32.2%	50.9%	18.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	13.5%	—	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	11%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	80.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	81.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	82.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗