WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
10%
WN2
10%
ICON
9%
HRES
6%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 6.7¢Risks 1.66u
VS
AIFSNO 93.3¢Risks 23.34u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.34u · AIFS −23.34u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 9.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00ICON: 9.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 9.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 9.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 9.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:003.5%9.8%9.8%6.4%9.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:003.5%9.8%9.8%6.4%9.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:003.5%9.8%9.8%6.4%9.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:003.5%9.8%9.8%6.4%9.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:003.5%9.8%9.8%6.4%9.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble10%80.1°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%79.3°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON9%81.0°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%82.1°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend5%80.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single4%82.8°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗