KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

71%

70%

56%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

ICONNO 26.7¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.75u · ICON −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	21.9%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	78.3%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	1.2%	87.9%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	28.6%	78.6%	16.6%	—	83.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	60.1%	97.7%	56.6%	—	81.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	74.9%	83.1%	84.5%	—	74.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	59.5%	73.9%	42.9%	36.7%	71.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	68.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	88.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	82.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	82.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	80.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗