KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

77%

76%

76%

76%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.7¢Risks 41.85u

AIFSNO 16.3¢Risks 8.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +8.15u · AIFS −8.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	63.1%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	54.4%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	13.7%	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	0.3%	80.2%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	69.5%	77.0%	23.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	60.8%	86.5%	63.6%	44.2%	78.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	82.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	90.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	89.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	85.2°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	85.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	85.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗