KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

67%

66%

49%

48%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

WN2NO 39.1¢Risks 39.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.05u · WN2 −39.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	51.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	41.9%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.1%	69.4%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	56.3%	65.1%	13.7%	—	66.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	46.4%	76.8%	49.3%	30.4%	65.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	86.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	86.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	86.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	83.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗