KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

67%

66%

49%

48%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

WN2NO 39.1¢Risks 39.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.05u · WN2 −39.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	63.6%	62.7%	62.3%	85.8%	70.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	63.6%	62.7%	62.3%	85.8%	70.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	63.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	70.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	63.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	63.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	73.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	66.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	73.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	66.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	73.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	66.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	73.6%	62.7%	56.2%	85.8%	66.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	73.6%	49.2%	48.3%	65.9%	66.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	86.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	86.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	86.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	83.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗