KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

31%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

WN2NO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.30u · WN2 −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	12.5%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	0.0%	30.6%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	18.4%	25.2%	1.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	11.7%	35.7%	13.2%	5.3%	24.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	86.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	86.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	86.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	83.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗