KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

31%

12%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

WN2NO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.30u · WN2 −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:05+00:00	28.9%	23.3%	21.6%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	28.9%	23.3%	21.6%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	28.9%	23.3%	21.6%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	28.9%	23.3%	21.6%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	28.9%	23.3%	21.6%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	28.9%	21.1%	9.5%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	28.9%	21.1%	9.5%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	28.9%	21.1%	9.5%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	27.7%	21.1%	9.5%	54.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	27.7%	21.1%	9.4%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T15:14:02+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	9.4%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	9.4%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	9.4%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	21.6%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	21.6%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	27.7%	20.6%	21.6%	54.9%	2.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	21.6%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	21.6%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	21.6%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	21.6%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:20+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	21.6%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	30.7%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	19.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	24.3%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	31.5%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	34.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	31.5%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	34.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	31.5%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	34.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	31.5%	20.6%	15.4%	55.6%	34.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	31.5%	12.4%	9.2%	30.8%	34.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	86.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	86.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	86.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	83.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗